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9 Sep 2011

Are we there yet?

Posted by Ted. No Comments

The classic call from the backseat, indelibly etched in my memory from my own childhood on those long car rides to the vacation home, restless children wanting to BE THERE finally and have done with this endless driving, driving driving. And then blesesedly we always finally did arrive and the vacation fun started properly.

Seems like that’s where we are today, after some years of development.  Last night we raised the curtain on our new Daily Forecast and early reports are that is is looking like a winner.

First we have the Daily Call… and in beta tests this garnered a phenomenal 40+ percent return  the first month!  Then there is the new DG Trading Dashboard that collects in one place all the unique DG  market state indicators and momentum triggers, and which can be reviewed in an instant.  Then we have trading  charts and DG price level tables so that the trading situation can be assessed independently from TradeStation if one needs to do that. 

This was a substantial effort and many many months of development work and programming undergird the final result.   Time will tell if it matches expectations, if the Track Record will continue in such positive territory, if the Dashboard gains acceptance among DG traders.

But it sure feels good to have arrived at this point.

Yes I think we’re there.

 

2 Feb 2011

Clean the stables, groom the horse

Posted by Ted. No Comments

Fix up time around here these days … cleaning out the stable and grooming the horse and painting the barn so to speak.

Looking outside at “The Blizzard of 2011″ and the piles of snow on the patio, you wouldn’t think it, but Spring must be a-coming in because if this is not spring cleaning I don’t know what is. I’m getting crazy-compulsive with the details for sure.

  • Finished the translations for now… oh except for the “Quick Start” course, and that requires that I write the subtitles first. Who knew?
  • So then I took a hard look at all the navigation and organization of the main DG site and made lots of little changes and a few big ones. I hope it’s an improvement. At least now I can find my way around in there, and so perhaps others can as well. There is a lot of stuff posted there.
  • The ole reliable site at TedTick.com was in need of refurbishing so I spent a few days fixing all the broken links and touching up the worst offenders so it can stay around for another few years I think.
  • I didn’t seem to have a decent venue for posting more reflective discursive thoughts on markets, psychology, and some other things that interest me, so I sat down and made one. I think I’ll call this “Drummond Geometry Unplugged,” as in unplugged at the end of the day when I can sit and relax and think about whatever. Or as in Unplugged guitar music, non-electric, non-amplified, all acoustic and relaxing.

    Check it out: DrummondGeometry Unplugged

23 Jan 2011

Reach is extended, grasp may follow…

Posted by Ted. No Comments

I added some languages to my website and got a massive education in character encodings, UTF-8-16-32, ISO charsets, glyph definitions, and HTML escape codes and other arcane items for East Asia Languages and other tongues.  Fun it was, in a jigsaw-puzzle-lover’s way.

One little challenge was which languages to include.  Do I include Afrikaans? How about Maori, Zulu or Tartar?   Reading the list I wanted to drop the code-tinkering and go a-roving.

Now that it’s done I’m happy to report that my reach has surely been extended; we’ll see how my  grasp does as time moves on.

The experience reminded me of the biblical story of Babel, and how different languages came to be.  It seems that God was miffed that Man was building a tower of great proportion and so he created the mélange of languages so mankind couldn’t work together and make such rapid progress.   Seems a bit unsporting, really.

My strategy was to place human-generated translations on the key pages and use machine translations al la Google for the dozens of supporting and second level pages.   The results are acceptable but remind me of the difference between computer-generated trading systems and the human mind.  No getting around it: flesh, blood and living, pulsing gray matter beats silicon processing every time.

13 Jan 2011

Caveman or Cognoscenti?

Posted by Ted. No Comments

We ground through a ton of data recently and posted the trade results as a sort of track record for the Daily Forecast, using the trade types currently on deck.  A interesting process.

How’d we do?

Compared to what passes for computerized trading these days I think  pretty well.  Some symbols came in at 80 percent plus, some at considerably less.   But then we  take an unconventional approach to computer-testing and so in my mind the results show much more potential than one might think just looking at the raw numbers.

It goes back to what I call my “caveman” approach to trading, as in “just hit it over the head and drag it back to the cave”.  None of this fancy-pants mathematical fooling around with derivatives, options, cross-market, multi-economic indicators and the like.  To me that’s the “cognoscenti” approach and while it works wonders for some people, for me it leads to dangerous curve-fitting waters where the seas look calm but hide fatal rock shoals on all sides.

I’ve crashed and foundered too many times when trying to improve a trading concept by adding another sophisticated parameter.

These days in my dotage I like my simpler caveman approach.  When the direction is right, it’s right. And there are only three choices: buy, sell, or stand aside.

So when we test now we test for direction only, and leave the details of implementation to the trader.  The test tells us only: if one takes a position on the opening of the next bar, is the directional bet right or wrong?

If we get that right then everything else will fall in place.